If you’re wondering whether the 2024 presidential election will impact real estate, you’re not alone. For many buyers, sellers, and investors, the question is front and center, as election cycles often bring a layer of uncertainty to the market. But let’s unpack this one step at a time, because history shows some reassuring trends. Here’s what the past nine elections can tell us about real estate during an election year and what you might expect as we head toward November.
Do Home Sales Slow Down During Elections?
The Seasonal Dip in Fall
Home sales tend to slow down naturally in the fall after the busy spring and summer seasons. Add an election to the mix, and this dip can be a bit more noticeable. According to Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, November sales are often slower in election years. Why? People get a bit nervous about making big financial decisions during this time, and they tend to hit “pause” until things feel more certain.
But Don’t Worry – It’s Temporary
Here’s the good news: history shows this slowdown doesn’t last. Typically, by December, sales pick up as the initial uncertainty clears. And here’s the kicker: in nine of the last eleven presidential election years, sales trended upward into the following year. So while a brief slowdown is possible, it’s not likely to stick around.
Home Prices: Resilient Through Election Cycles
Do Home Prices Drop During Election Years?
If you’re concerned that an election year might lower home values, relax. Historically, home prices have remained resilient, rising year over year – regardless of the political climate. Ryan Lundquist, a residential appraiser, says it best: “An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”
Almost Always a Price Increase Post-Election
Looking back, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reveals that home prices rose following seven of the last eight presidential elections. The only exception was during the 2008 financial crisis, which was an unusual market event. So, if history holds true, homeowners can rest assured that the value of their homes is unlikely to be affected negatively by this year’s election.
Mortgage Rates: A Bit of Relief in an Election Year
Election Cycles and Mortgage Rates
The economy, politics, and real estate all intersect when it comes to mortgage rates. In fact, data from Freddie Mac shows that mortgage rates dropped between July and November in eight out of the last eleven presidential election years. Lower mortgage rates mean better affordability for buyers – a factor that can boost demand in the months ahead.
Forecast for 2024
Most experts are forecasting a slight dip in rates as the year continues. While we’re not expecting a drastic drop, a steady decrease could make it easier for more buyers to enter the market. For those considering buying, this could be the incentive they need to move forward sooner rather than later.
What This Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Agents
For Buyers: If you’re in the market, keep an eye on mortgage rates. Election-year rates often trend downward, which could make buying more affordable in the coming months.
For Sellers: The natural dip in November might slow showings temporarily, but December usually sees a rebound. The market has shown a strong upward trend following elections, so stay confident and focused.
For Agents: Many clients are likely feeling uncertain. Keeping them informed about these trends can help them navigate this unique season with less stress. Remember, real estate is still about long-term value, and historically, the market has proven resilient.
Final Thoughts: Election Jitters May Come & Go, But Real Estate Holds Strong
The election-year jitters may be unavoidable, but history gives us a reassuring perspective. Real estate has remained steady or improved in nine of the last eleven elections. So whether you’re buying, selling, or just watching the market, remember that this election season might bring a little drama – but it’s not likely to rewrite the story of real estate.
MEET THE AUTHOR
I’m Kevin Wood, a trusted professional in residential real estate who has served southern Arizona and the surrounding areas since 2005. My knowledge and experience covers a wide range of topics including general real estate, mortgages, financing, seniors, moving, and home improvement.
I can be reached at Kevin@thewoodgrouptucson.com or by phone at 520-260-3123. For the past 19+ years, I’ve helped over 600 families move in and out of southern Arizona and constantly rank among the top 10% of realtors nationwide for performance and client satisfaction.
Are you planning a move? I’m passionate about real estate and enjoy sharing my knowledge and skills in marketing.
I serve people with real estate needs in the following areas of southern Arizona: Tucson, Vail, Corona de Tucson, Sahuarita, Green Valley, Oro Valley, Marana, Picture Rocks, Catalina, Saddlebrooke, Benson, Tanque Verde, Three Points, and Red Rock.
